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Writer's picture Emma Holbrook

What if Prince Arthur had lived and Henry VIII had never become King?


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One of the most tragic and unforeseen moments in Tudor history was the death of the teenage heir to the throne, Prince Arthur. News of his death swept far and wide throughout England, with many of the young prince’s would-be subjects deeply upset over the death of their future King and showing a massive amount of love and support towards the royal family, especially King Henry and Queen Elizabeth. Had Prince Arthur lived, history would not be the same as we know it as the tyrant Henry VIII would have never become King of England if his brother had survived the unknown illness that ultimately took his life.


Today marks the 552nd anniversary of the wedding of Prince Arthur Tudor, the heir to the throne of England, and Catalina de Aragon (known as Catherine of Aragon), the youngest daughter of two of the world’s most powerful monarchs, King Ferdinand of Aragon and Queen Isabella of Castile—Spain’s most powerful monarchs. Although the young couple had technically been married by proxy (where two separate ceremonies took place for Arthur in England and Catalina in Spain with someone being sent to represent the bride/groom), the two had never actually met and as is tradition, a second more official wedding would take place in England as Catalina would be the future Queen of England.


And so, after a gruelling journey from Spain to England, fifteen-year-old Catalina and Arthur finally met for the first time on 4th November 1501 and were married a mere ten days later on 14th November 1501 at St Paul’s Cathedral. Naturally, the wedding was a grand affair was not only was this marriage a way of securing King Henry VII’s alliance with Spain but it was also a way of ensuring that the Tudor line lived on. Both King Henry and King Ferdinand, Catalina’s father, spent a great deal on the whole affair to ensure that the whole world knew just how important this marriage was in the early modern world.


It must have felt so exciting yet scary for Arthur and Catalina—although marrying someone you have never met in an arranged marriage was hardly anything new for royal children, it still must have worried them both to have married someone they have never met who might turn out to be a horrible person or (in Arthur’s case as infidelity from a wife was punishable by law) a cheating spouse who humiliates you in front of your court and your subjects. Luckily for them both, the young couple’s decision to write letters to one another on a frequent basis following the proxy-marriage ceremony prior to the wedding on 14th November 1501. Arthur and Catalina are believed to have been smitten with one another and shared a doting affection for one another. Many within England must have been excited to see what lay ahead for the young couple, especially in regards to how quickly it would take for news of a child to be on the way for the future King. In the eyes of many, including Arthur and Catalina themselves, a child very early on into the marriage, especially one born before Arthur even ascended to the throne, meant that Arthur’s future rule was already secured and if (as was common for royal couples, believe it or not) a miscarriage or stillborn or unexpected infant death did occur, there was still time for them to conceive once again. And, as an added bonus, it provided ‘proof’ in a sense that the wife was indeed fertile and could provide royal heirs. As you might be aware, men could not be blamed for a woman either not becoming pregnant or ‘failing’ pregnancies e.g. miscarriages or stillbirths—it was all the woman’s fault, as Catalina’s second husband would surely tell her and her successors many years later.


Imagine the amount of pain and hurt that Catalina must have felt when she learned much later than the rest of England that her husband had died from the same illness she still suffered from and that she was now a widow. Of course, the classic argument of whether the couple did indeed consummate their marriage began to come into play here when securing Prince Henry as Catalina’s new husband by consulting the Pope for official permission.


So… to commemorate this special anniversary in Tudor history, I thought it would be fun to do a little ‘what if’ for Arthur and Catalina. What if Prince Arthur had lived and fulfilled his destiny, so to speak, of becoming King of England with Catalina by his side. What if Catalina’s numerous pregnancies had indeed not ended so tragically? How might have Arthur ruled as King and treated his wife in comparison to how we know his brother did? What might he have achieved for England and for the Tudor dynasty?


Well—whilst my opinion on how history might have turned out might not be the same opinion of what you readers think but my version of history had Arthur lived is based off what we know of Arthur before his death, events following his death and what we know of both his brother Henry and his wife Catalina and maybe a little of his father, King Henry VII.


I hope you enjoy!


What if Arthur had lived—his recovery from illness and early years of marriage to Catalina:


Following a slow recovery from an unknown illness, which historians believe might have been tuberculosis, testicular cancer, influenza (the flu) as well as other possible illnesses, Prince Arthur would enjoy living with his young bride in the Welsh Marshes. In order to ensure her safety, he would remain in separate chambers from her to make sure that the illness that had almost killed them both was completely gone and could not cause further harm on his wife. Once it was confirmed that the sickness was gone, Arthur would request to share the same chambers as his wife and would wait until the time was right before consummating the marriage, potentially another few months, rather than force Catalina or himself to do something that they are not comfortable with.


The young couple would continue to grow closer and learn how to adapt to married life; Arthur would take pride in bringing a smile to his wife’s face and hearing stories of her childhood back in Spain. Arthur’s gentle and kind nature would show the most when doting affection upon his wife; he would spend his private time penning love letters and poems to showcase his love for her and would take an interest in her favourite pastimes. Similar to his father, Arthur would devote himself to his studies of becoming the future King of England and would show the same and would support Catalina in her own preparation to become Queen.


For the Christmas celebrations of 1502, Arthur and Catalina would travel from their home in the Welsh Marshes to the royal court back in London to spend time with his parents and siblings. Here, Arthur would enjoy some one-on-one time with his father, learning more about the mechanics of ruling and who will be advising him on his royal council. He might also have spent time with his sisters and possibly Henry but the brothers might have experienced a bit of awkwardness between them as Arthur was more the quiet, shy type whilst Henry was outgoing and tended to attention-seek at gatherings or festivities.


Catalina, on the other hand, would most likely enjoy getting to know her sisters-in-law; Margaret, who would be around twelve-years-old, and young Mary, who would be around five years old. Historians have noted that Catalina shared loving relationships with her sisters-in-law as both of them supported her during her divorce from Henry VIII and publicly disagreed with his decision to leave her for Anne Boleyn. Additionally, historians have noted a similar kind of relationship between Catalina and her mother-in-law, Elizabeth of York, whom she thought of almost like a second mother here in England. During their time together, Elizabeth might have taken the time to ask her daughter-in-law about how she was finding married life and possibly ask about whether a child was on the way, as well as taking the time to advise her on the hardships of queenship and other matters.


Spending time with their family at Christmas would allow the young couple to deepen the bonds they already had with their family and perhaps begin to make allies within the royal court. Allies is a more appropriate word to use rather than friends because, at this stage, Arthur and Catalina still had many more years before they ascended to the throne and they needed to search the court for those few people who they could truly trust and rely on to do their duty without causing trouble. Both of them would take pride on their good judgement of character and their ability to form lasting alliances-turned-friendships within the court.


Unfortunately, the new year of 1503 would bring some sorrowful moments for the young couple, starting with the death of Arthur’s mother, Elizabeth of York, on her thirty-seventh birthday on 11th February 1503, nine days after giving birth to her youngest daughter Katharine who did not survive long after birth. The young couple at this point would have returned to their home in the Welsh Marshes, most likely enjoying spending time in each other’s company and exploring the intimacy between them at a pace that best suited them. At this point, the two would have consummated their marriage but no heir had been conceived just yet, not that it was a worry for them as they knew that God would bless them when they were ready as they would still be teenagers at this point. Heartbroken at the death of his mother and younger sister Katharine (who might have been named in Catalina’s honour), Arthur would immediately send a letter to his father announcing his intention to be with his family and once his father sent his approval, he and Catalina would set off to London to attend his mother’s funeral later that month where she was buried at Westminster Abbey on 23rd February.


As you might expect, the Queen’s death (along with her youngest child) would hit hard in the hearts of both the royal family and the people of England. Many would be worried for the health and safety of the King as well as the Crown Prince and Princess and whether they might also become ill or close to death as Arthur had done previously. It would take some time before the family would recover from their grief of their beloved Queen, wife and mother but many months later, the royal family would find much to celebrate with the wedding of King James IV of Scotland to Princess Margaret, the eldest daughter of King Henry VII and the younger sister of Arthur.


When they married on 8th August 1503, King James was around thirty years old whilst Margaret was around thirteen years old so he was her senior by over fifteen years and had already fathered illegitimate children by the time of their marriage. The marriage between Margaret and James was a significant event in Tudor history; Henry VII understood the importance of making allies and not enemies when establishing a new dynasty. He was well aware that there were many threats to his rule and to his heir’s future rule and so he needed to align himself with the right (and powerful) people. He had already allied himself with Spain through Arthur’s marriage to Catalina and now he would align himself with one of England’s oldest enemies, Scotland, with his eldest daughter Margaret’s marriage to their King.


Although sad to see his beloved sister leave for Scotland, Arthur would comfort and support his sister in preparation for her wedding by assuring her that her new husband would love her just as much as Arthur loved his own wife. Catalina would also show love and support for her sister-in-law by offering her some advice on what to expect in married life, especially since it was a well-known fact that James had illegitimate children with various mistresses. The couple would pray for the safe journey of Margaret and that God bless her with healthy offspring and a long rule as Queen of Scotland—hoping that once Arthur became King, she would continue to encourage the alliance between Scotland and England for the benefit of them all.


However, I believe that the couple best supported one another during times of hardship, especially when it came to the loss of a loved one and nothing could bring the two closer other than the death of Catalina’s mother, Isabella of Castile, on 26th November and the death of Arthur’s father, King Henry VII of England, on 21st April 1509.


Many historians have noted the loving relationship between Isabella of Castile and Catalina and how Catalina’s own relationship with her daughter, Mary, was influenced because of this. Her dedication to ensuring that her daughter received a royal, queen-like education was all because of the fact that Isabella of Castile did the exact same thing for her and the rest of her siblings. Therefore, when the news of her mother’s death arrived sometime after, Catalina would have been devastated to learn of her mother’s death, especially when she was her biggest supporter. Unlike her mother, Catalina’s father, Ferdinand of Aragon, was a cruel and manipulative ruler who sought to undermine even those close to him in order to achieve his end. It is believed that he had once tried to undermine his own wife’s rule in order to seek ultimate power over her and he would later do the same thing to his daughter Juana when she became Queen of Castile following her mother’s death. Knowing that her father would not support her in the same way her mother did must have been frightening for young Catalina and Arthur must have seen this fear in his wife. Comforting her during this rough time would inevitably bring the two closer as Arthur would not want to see his young wife upset or frightened about her future rule as Queen or whether her father would seek to use her as a pawn in whatever game he wished to play.


Catalina would mourn in the tradition Spanish way of mourning and Arthur would wholeheartedly support her, even if his father and future subjects found it a little odd. To him, Catalina’s Spanish traits made her unique and all the more special to him because she wasn’t like the young English girls he saw growing up (from a distance, of course, remember that Arthur was secluded for his entire childhood due to the risk of him dying young).


And when the death of his own father came on 21st April 1509, Catalina returned her husband’s love and support tenfold by grieving with him and caring for his younger siblings. At this time, Margaret would not have been present for her father’s death as she would have been in Scotland and both Henry and Mary must have been concerned for their future. I believe at the time of his death that King Henry VII did not have complete plans for the futures of his second son, Henry (otherwise known as Harry to those close to him), and youngest daughter Mary. Whilst Arthur was busy making preparations for both his and Catalina’s coronations, Catalina would busy herself writing to Margaret in Scotland to rely the news of the King’s death as well as spending time with Henry and Mary to promise them that she and Arthur would keep their best interests at heart when it came to deciding their futures.


Coronating a new King and Queen was always a lavish affair, even if it was not lavish in costs. Alike his father, Arthur would not want to waste the Crown’s precious funds on an extravagant coronation when the people were still mourning the loss of their beloved King. Both he and Catalina would decide on a more toned-down affair that both enabled them to show off the grandeur and importance of their coronation whilst also taking the sensitivity of the situation into consideration. And so on the 24th June 1509, England would witness the coronation of King Arthur I and Queen Catalina. The first few weeks of ruling would ultimately be a struggle for the young couple, with King Arthur being nearly twenty-three years old and Queen Catalina being a few months short of her twenty-fourth birthday, but they would continue to support one another as they always did, determined to rule the best they can for the sake of England.


Unlike his brother, King Arthur would remain loyal to his beautiful wife and would not take any lovers throughout the entirety of their marriage. The love between Arthur and Catalina would only inspire their subjects to seek the same love within their own marriages as shortly following their coronation, Catalina would find herself with child for the first time.


What if Arthur had lived—Arthur’s early rule as King and children with Catalina:


Delighted by the news of his wife’s pregnancy, Arthur would spend the entirety of Catalina’s pregnancy preparing for the arrival of the newborn. Whilst miscarriages and stillbirths are not uncommon with first royal pregnancies, Arthur and Catalina would both be dedicated to ensuring that their firstborn child is delivered safely and is as healthy as can be possibly achieved. Whilst preparing for the birth of his first child, King Arthur would focus on his alliance with both Scotland and Spain by sending messengers and ambassadors to their courts to ensure the peace treaties remained intact. Arthur would implore his wife to remain in constant communication with his sister Margaret in Scotland as the last thing he would want during the early years of his reign was a war. Alike his father and unlike his brother, Arthur would understand how costly a war could be for a young King like him. He was not experienced in the art of warfare nor would he wish to start a war; wars were created by men who wished to prove themselves to the world and ultimately brought about more death, chaos and disaster than ever before. Ensuring that the alliance between England and Scotland lasted was the best possible course of action that Arthur could take and the same thing applied to Spain.


Not only was Spain one of the most powerful nations in the early modern world but it was also Catalina’s homeland; by aligning England with Spain, King Arthur was sending a message to those who might wish him ill-will. As long as Spain remained an ally, England was safe from invasion or a war as Spain would ultimately send aid if needed.


King Arthur would also focus on two other more important matters; securing the futures of his younger brother Henry and his younger sister Mary. I have mentioned before that I seriously doubt that any final decisions had been made or put into place regarding the futures of Henry and Mary at the time of King Henry VII’s death but I do believe that he would have mentioned what he was considering doing to either his son or his advisors. His brother, Henry VIII, arrested two of his father’s most unpopular ministers, Richard Empson and Edmund Dudley, a mere two days after his coronation. On his orders, they were found guilty of high reason and later executed sometime in 1510. Whether Arthur would have also done this is unknown but I do believe that he would have at least removed them from his court due to their unpopularity and instead replaced them with people he trusted, this including his brother Henry.


According to royal tradition, the second-born son of a King would usually go into the church or become the Duke of Cornwall / Prince of Wales when his brother became King and until the subsequent arrival of a son. Due to what we know of young Henry’s nature as a child, I very much doubt that Arthur would have ordered his brother go into priesthood when he would have wished to keep his brother close at all times. We have to remember that Arthur’s rule was only properly secured when a male heir was produced and until then, Henry was still a possible heir to the throne. Although Henry was not a King, he was still a Prince and this meant that offers of marriage from not only princesses and high-ranking ladies from allied countries but other countries wishing to align themselves with England would soon come floating in.


Of course, from the moment of both Arthur and Henry’s births, marriage proposals would have been received by King Henry and Queen Elizabeth, one did not rush into a marriage contract on the off chance that a better one was later offered. This would be the same for Henry, who would be around eighteen at the time of his brother’s coronation, as offers from Spain, Italy, France, Scotland and many other countries would be considered by his brother.

Naturally, Arthur’s first choice of bride would reside in Spain. By marrying his brother off to a high-ranking Spanish bride, he would be further cementing his alliance with Spain and showing his loyalty to his beloved wife. One suitable consideration for a bride might have been Eleanor of Castile, the firstborn child of Catalina’s sister, Queen Juana of Castile. Ironically, her family attempted to marry her off to Henry VIII as a child before he eventually married Catalina. The benefits of a potential marriage between Henry and Eleanor would have been that Henry would have been a high-ranking member of the Spanish court and enabled Arthur to maintain Spanish ties. The downside of that would be that since Eleanor was a first-born Princess, the match might not have been as beneficial for her as it would have been for Henry due to the fact that she could have been matched better with a future King (as she inevitably was in real life).


Another possible Spanish bride would have been Isabella of Portugal, the eldest daughter of Catalina’s other sister, Maria of Aragon, Queen of Portugal. Isabella, alike her cousin Eleanor, would have been considered as a possible match for Henry as she offered the same benefits for Henry in the sense that he would have been a high-ranking member of Spanish society. Whether Catalina would have preferred her brother-in-law to marry Isabella or Eleanor would purely have been based on which of the two women provided more for England and the alliance between England and Spain.


If Arthur decided against a Spanish bride—perhaps opting to explore further connections within the Kingdom of Scotland—he might have considered any female relatives of King James as he did not have any daughters to choose from and he most certainly would not have considered betrothing Henry to one of James’ numerous illegitimate children. Henry was a Crown Prince and he needed to marry well in case Arthur found himself dying without a male heir.


Similar to his wife, Arthur would have held his Catholic beliefs very near and dear to him and it is possible that he would consider marrying Henry to an Italian bride due to the deep Catholic roots. From 1508 to 1519, Maximillian I was the Holy Roman Emperor (whom I believe is distantly related to Catalina) and he had one legitimate daughter (and numerous illegitimate daughters from various mistresses) whom Arthur might have considered betrothing Henry to: Margaret of Austria, Duchess of Savoy, who was also the sister of Philip the Handsome, the husband of Catalina’s sister, Juana of Castile. Not only would the marriage bring Henry (and ultimately Arthur as a result) closer to the Holy Roman Church but it would show the immense dedication to the Catholic faith. In such times, it was not uncommon for multiple members of one family to be married into the same family e.g. a sister could marry the brother of another family and in turn her brother could marry her husband’s sister, if that makes sense. The better the connections to other powerful families, the better.


One last significant consideration that Arthur might have made was marrying Henry off to a French bride. At this point in time, England and France had been enemies turned friends and friends turned enemies for as long as history can record. War was not on the table for Arthur and therefore he might have considered marrying Henry off to a French princess or duchess as part of a peace treaty with France (whether France was enemies with Spain played a huge part as England would not become allies with the enemy of another ally). If Arthur did consider this, the most obvious route to take was picking one of King Louis XII’s two daughters as Henry’s future bride.


King Louis XII of France played a key part in Arthur’s decisions for his siblings future and offered Arthur a lot more than what the other potential brides did. Not only were both of his daughters unmarried and very young (an important factor as the younger the bride was, the better the chances of fertility and providing children faster) but Louis XII himself was looking for a bride as he had no living male heirs. This made Arthur’s decision much more harder as he had to also look for a husband for his little sister just as quickly as he had to marry off his younger brother.


Although marrying Mary off to Louis XII would make Mary Queen of France, the King was old and the likelihood of the marriage being short was high. If he died without Mary producing an heir, this meant that she would marry someone of a lower-standing back in England. If he died before the marriage could be consummated, then the chances of her marrying a King or a Prince were still high. If she produced a male heir, Mary would become Queen Regent of France until her son came of age. But there was no way of knowing what could happen and Arthur knew this. Besides, Mary herself had many possible options from Scotland, Spain and Italy. Mary had an abundance of potential Spanish marriages at her disposal as a result of Arthur’s marriage to Catalina. From Catalina’s sister, Juana of Castile, Mary could have received an offer of marriage from both Charles V and his brother Ferdinand I, both of which were Holy Roman Emperors. If she wished to marry a son of Catalina’s other sister, Maria of Aragon, she could have chosen from all of Maria’s sons (save two as they became Cardinals who were forbidden to marry) as they all would have benefitted her greatly. Maria’s sons included John III of Portugal; Luís of Portugal, Duke of Beja; Infante Ferdinand, Duke of Guarda; and Duarte, Duke of Guimarães.


Ultimately, time was of the essence and Arthur would have been forced to make a hasty decision. In the end, Princess Mary would marry the dying King Louis XII of France in 1514 and following his death would marry a high-ranking Duke in the English court in order to remain close to her brother. I believe that Henry would have either married Eleanor of Castile or Margaret of Austria, Duchess of Savoy in around 1512/1515.


By 1520, Catalina would have been pregnant around six times, all but one ending in the birth of a healthy, beautiful baby. The couple’s first daughter, Elizabeth, was born in April 1510 and was named after her paternal grandmother, Elizabeth of York. It was believed that Catalina was mistakenly informed that she was carrying twins and that she miscarried one but it would later prove to not be an issue for the couple who were delighted with their newborn daughter. Catalina would swiftly find herself pregnant for a second time and give birth to the couple’s firstborn son and heir, Arthur II, on 11th January 1511. The arrival of the long-awaited heir to the throne would cause massive celebrations to be held for weeks on end with the proud Arthur there to thank his beautiful wife for providing him with the heir needed to secure his dynasty.


In order to allow his wife some time to recover from having two pregnancies practically back to back (as Catalina most certainly became with child for the second time mere weeks after first giving birth), the couple’s third pregnancy announcement did not come until early 1513 where Catalina would deliver a healthy second-born son on 17th September 1513. Named Henry after both his paternal grandfather and uncle, little Henry was adored by his parents and would take after his father’s gentle and almost shy nature. He would soon be followed by yet another son, little Edmund (another Tudor name), who was born sometime in late 1514. The couple’s youngest and last surviving child would be the famous Mary Tudor on 18th February 1516 as her younger sister Isabella, named after her maternal grandmother, was sadly born deceased on 10th November 1518, much to the sorrow of the King and Queen.


What if Arthur had lived—Arthur’s last years of life:


England would enjoy peace and tranquillity during the rule of King Arthur and he would enjoy a long, loving marriage to his beloved Catalina. England would become a much more stronger, powerful and peaceful kingdom as a result of Arthur’s strategy to marry his children off in powerful and lasting political alliances. His eldest daughter, Elizabeth, would be married off to her cousin, Charles V, Holy Roman Emperor, in 1527 after he broke his marriage contract with her other cousin Isabella of Portugal, in order to marry a seventeen-year-old Elizabeth. The heir to the throne, Arthur II, would go onto become King Arthur II and would take Renée of France, the daughter of King Louis XII, as his wife in 1528 when Arthur was seventeen and his bride, a year older than him, was eighteen.


His brothers, Henry and Edmund, would also marry well; Henry would marry Margaret of Valois, Duchess of Berry, the youngest daughter of King Francis I of France and Claude of France (the sister of Renée), in 1550 when he was thirty-seven years old and his wife was twenty-seven. The couple’s last son, Edmund, would marry Christina of Denmark also in 1550 when Edmund is thirty-six and Christina is twenty-nine after the death of his first wife Catherine, an English noblewoman, and after the death of Christina’s two husbands; Francesco II Sforza and Francis I, Duke of Lorraine. And finally, Princess Mary would still marry the beloved King Philip II of Spain except she would have married him in 1556 instead of 1554 as this would be her second marriage. Prior to Philip, Mary would have first been married to Infante Luís of Portugal, Duke of Beja from 1534 when Mary was almost eighteen and Luís was twenty-eight. Although this marriage would be a happy one, Mary would be left broken-hearted when her husband died in 1555 at the age of forty-nine before a visit to Spain had her falling helplessly in love with Philip whom she married and had two sons with before her death in 1590 and his death in 1598.


Prince Henry (or as we know him Henry VIII) would not become King of England as history currently stands but he would show the same tendencies as he did in real life. For example, he would not be faithful to his wife, either Eleanor of Castile who died in 1558 or Margaret of Austria, Duchess of Savoy who died in 1530. If he did marry Margaret of Austria, Henry would return to England after his wife’s death in 1530 and would take Anne Bassett as his mistress (just like he is rumoured to have done in real life), potentially taking her as his second wife.


For King Arthur and Queen Catalina, the two would enjoy a long life together before Arthur died in his sleep at the age of seventy four on 19th August 1560 with Catalina dying from a broken heart on what would have been the couple’s 60th anniversary on 14th November 1561, with their eldest son Arthur becoming King Arthur II and who would preserve the Tudors rule for the next two hundred years.



What do you think? Do you agree with my alternate version of history?


Do you think Arthur and Catalina would have been as happy as I hope they would?


If only Arthur had lived, perhaps the six wives of Henry VIII might have had a happier ending.


Until next time!


- Have a ‘Tudor-fic’ week!

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